Might Belarus Join Russia in the War?

“According to intelligence, the construction of roads toward Ukrainian territory and the development of artillery positions are underway in the Belarusian border areas. We believe that Russia may once again attempt to drag Belarus into its war,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated last week.

Zelenskyy did not specify what exactly could be the goal of this process, but there are two main scenarios:

• Either the Belarusian army itself joins Russia in the aggression and invades Ukraine;
• Or, just like it was in 2022, Belarus provides the Russian army with a foothold for invading Ukraine from the north.

IStories have requested experts to comment on how probable each scenario is. 

Military construction at the borderlands and its relevance

Soon after Zelenskyy’s statement, eRadar, a Ukrainian war analytics Telegram channel, published some of the satellite images taken in March in the border regions of Belarus. As reported by the channel, the pictures show a new border post, a military town, a training ground, a dam and an embankment to move military vehicles being built there. “It seems Belarus has indeed been tasked by Russia to keep our forces on alert ahead of their spring-summer offensive in the east and south,” Andriy Kovalenko, head of Ukraine’s Center for Countering Disinformation, commented.

However, there has been no observed buildup of Belarusian or Russian troops near the border, Andriy Demchenko, Ukraine’s State Border Guard Service spokesperson, said on Monday. “As part of their information campaign, they (the Belarusians — Ed.) previously announced the creation of a Southern Operational Command — specifically along the border with Ukraine. The positions, training grounds, and access roads might be established within this framework,” Demchenko explained.

Conflict Intelligence Team (CIT) (an OSINT project specialized in investigations into the activities of Russian Armed Forces — Ed.) suggests that the construction works are routine military activity and do not indicate preparations for a ground invasion of Ukraine. A source within CIT asked to remain anonymous comments, “we are not seeing artillery positions being set up or military vehicles concentrated.”

In recent years, Belarus has had little direct involvement in hostilities against Ukraine. The most recent known case involves repeaters used to control attack drones located on Belarusian territory.

In late December, Zelenskyy reported that antennas had been installed in Belarus near the Ukrainian border, some of them on the roofs of apartment buildings, which Russians were using to control drones attacking western regions of Ukraine. Two months later, Ukrainian Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov reported that a mesh network used to control the attacking UAVs in the north of Ukraine has been destroyed. Fedorov’s advisor, Serhii Beskrestnov, explained that there had been several locations in Belarus from which the drones would receive a signal they then retransmitted and amplified to one another (this is what constitutes a mesh network). The Ukrainian military did not specify how the Belarusian repeaters were destroyed. Since then, there have been no reports of their use.

Otherwise, Belarus’s military assistance to Russia can be described as less direct: it is wounded Russian soldiers' treatment and rehabilitation, military equipment parts production, combat helicopter maintenance, weapon parts supply chains that allow Russians circumvent the sanctions, etc.

May the Belarusian army join the fight itself?

“We estimate the prospect of the Belarusian Armed Forces joining the war as highly improbable,” the CIT expert says. He mentioned several reasons.

Belarusian army capabilities. According to Belarusian dictator Alexander Lukashenko, there are currently 70,000 active-duty soldiers. The total is around 100,000 if the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs and certain other units are included. However, analysts’ estimates are more modest. According to the Global Military project, there are about 45,000 troops in the Belarusian army, while Latvian intelligence puts the figure at approximately 50,000. Taking civilian staff into account, the 70,000 figure cited by Lukashenko is quite realistic. At the same time, Russia has about 700,000 personnel “in the special military operation zone,” as Vladimir Putin claimed in December.

The combat readiness of the Belarusian army is also questionable. “It’s important to understand that the number of truly combat-ready units is measured in the thousands,” explains the CIT analyst. According to him, without a mobilization — which CIT considers impossible to happen — the Belarusian army will be unable to influence the course of hostilities in any way.

Lukashenko says that “in the event of war” and mobilization, he could expand the army to 500,000 troops. The opposition United Transitional Cabinet of Belarus believes that the army could be expanded to 140,000–200,000 troops at best through mobilization, and that number would include the Internal Troops of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. “Half a million, it seems to me, is just a mantra used for self-reassurance, or perhaps for intimidating neighbors,” says Vadzim Kabanchuk, representative of the defence committee within the Belarusian opposition. Besides, it would have to be figured out how to equip, accommodate, and train such a large number of recruits.

In terms of weapons and military equipment, Belarus has little to offer the Russian army. Most of its arsenal was inherited from the Soviet Union. During the war, these stocks may have been depleted: there is evidence of mothballed equipment having been transferred from Belarus to the Russia-occupied territories of Ukraine. At the start of the war, the Belarusian prime minister acknowledged that in Russia there was demand for weapons from Belarus.

The main achievement of the Belarusian defense industry since the end of the Soviet era is considered to be the Polonez multiple-launch rocket system, capable of hitting targets at a distance of up to 300 km. However the Belarusian army has few Polonez systems (estimated at six units as of 2022). Secondly, the Russian army possesses some significantly more powerful and longer-range weapons, such as the Iskander systems.

Ukraine’s preparedness. “If we were to go to war against Ukraine today, it would be pointless. Their border with Belarus is so heavily fortified that it’s impossible to approach it,” Belarus President Lukashenko said two years ago. According to Lukashenko, the Ukrainian Armed Forces have about 120,000 troops stationed along the Belarus border. However, the Belarusian Border Committee estimates the number of Ukrainian troops at the border as only 15,000.

Ukrainians, understandably, do not disclose the number of their troops at the border, but regularly report on new fortifications being built along the border.

Another significant factor is Ukraine’s ability to monitor troop and equipment movements. If the Belarusian army does begin to redeploy its units to the border, the Ukrainian Armed Forces will have the opportunity to send their own units there in advance and set up a "drone wall” Ukrainians used in 2026 to successfully slow down the Russian army’s advance.

Belarusian people oppose taking part in the war. The army likely does as well. Recent polls (in October and November) show that the majority of Belarusians don’t support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. At the same time, a significant proportion (34–39%) chose not to answer the question. As for ending the war, more than 60% of respondents support an immediate ceasefire and negotiations.

The military isn’t eager to go to war either, according to the Belarusian opposition estimates. “The soldiers themselves lack the motivation — they need to be explained why they should invade and occupy a foreign country. There is no political ideology for that,” activist Ilya Dobrotvor, says. “In 2022, when the full-scale war began, it was the hesitation within the Belarusian army that effectively prevented Lukashenko from issuing an order for them to enter [Ukrainian territory] alongside the Russians,” Vadzim Kabanchuk from the United Transitional Cabinet says.

“Overall, Lukashenko is well aware that dragging Belarus into the war against Ukraine — let alone the hostilities on Belarus territory — would practically be a death sentence for him. Because there is public consensus on the idea he himself has been selling the idea to Belarusians in recent years : ‘I have ensured you peace, you are not fighting,’” Artsiom Brukhan, speaker of the Belarusian opposition Coordination Council, says.

Is Russia going to attack Ukraine from Belarus?

If Russians decide to attack Ukraine from Belarus using their own army like they did in 2022, they won't be able to expect to break through to the outskirts of Kyiv again. In 2026, the plausible objectives of another invasion from Belarus could be to stretch the front line and draw Ukrainian forces away from other sectors.

However, the Russian army currently significantly lacks the required resources, says the anonymous CIT analyst. “Such an operation would require at least several combined-arms armies. But then they would have to be withdrawn from the current front line, seriously weakening certain sectors,” the expert says. As of now, CIT has not detected Russian units being deployed to Belarus.

The State Border Service of Ukraine believes that Russia currently has no forces in Belarus that would be capable of carrying out a second invasion. 

However, Ukrainians do not rule out Russian provocations aimed at distracting Ukrainian forces units from other parts of the front. CIT believes that the Russian Armed Forces are already attempting to stretch the front by creating a “buffer zone” in the Sumy and Kharkiv regions. So far it has not been very successful, says the CIT expert: the Ukrainian Armed Forces withdrawing from border villages block the Russians’ advance deeper into the country. Moreover, the Ukrainians manage to do this without deploying reinforcements — mainly by the forces of territorial defense brigades.

Why is the threat from Belarus discussed now?

Zelensky has pointed out Russia’s attempts to make Belarus a bigger threat many times throughout the war. Here are the reasons why the President might be mentioning this possibility now, according to Anton Naumluck, a Russian journalist who had worked in Ukraine for many years and founded the Graty magazine.

“We cannot dismiss the possibility of Ukrainian intelligence learning that the Belarusian government is actually planning to take a bigger part in the war,” Naumluck says. “No matter what’s being said about Belarusians opposing the war, Lukashenko might simply decide that the people will tolerate any decision.”

On the other hand, the journalist thinks, “if the Office of the President of Ukraine is already thinking about the future electoral campaign, the threat of a new invasion might make people come to terms with such internal problems as forced mobilization or corruption.”

Another plausible explanation for speaking about the possible threat is Zelenskyy’s team “trying to strengthen the dialogue with the Belarusian opposition [Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya and her Office],” Naumluck says.